President Donald Trump is leading Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by 10 points among independents, a new CBS News/YouGov America poll showed.
When asked who they would vote for if the election were being held today, 47% of independents said that they would vote for Trump, and 37% said they would vote for Biden, the poll showed. Another 5% said that they weren’t sure who they would vote for, and 11% said that they would vote third-party or vote for someone other than Trump or Biden.
Why this is such a huge problem is due to the demographics of the election, if this trend continues Trump is going to win in a landslide.
What the press doesn’t tell you is the votes by the right and left are static, they change very little, the Democrats make up about 30% of the vote, it does not matter who you have running they are going to vote Democrat, these votes are not going to change. The other side, the GOP pulls in a little more votes, about 35%, these too are for the most part bound to their party, so what both Republicans and Democrats do is they work to appease their base while trying to make their platform more appealing to the center.
The ones that decide the elections are the independents, they sit in the middle, either center-right or center-left of the political spectrum. In the past politicians, did not matter what party they came from when trying to win an election, this pertains to the presidential election more than anything, the incumbent tries to move towards the middle, while the opposition counters with trying to move more towards the center. This was tossed out by the Obama administration to an extent, but he still moved more towards the center then to the extremes.
Yet this is not where the DNC is headed, they are trying to move as far left as they can, hoping against hope that their opposition will overcome the centrist voting for the party that sits more to the middle, what they are gambling on is the public’s distaste for Trump will overcome their trepidation over voting for a far more radical party, I don’t think this will be the case.
Gallup poll showed that 31% of Americans identified as Democrats, 25% identified as Republican, and 40% as Independent. What Gallup doesn’t show is of the two parties Republicans are more likely to vote then Democrats, although as we had seen with the black vote, the Democrats will drive out to vote if they are motivated by the candidate.
This is where independents come in; if a candidate can draw them in, they have a better chance of winning the general election. In 2016 Trump won by 7% margin the independent vote; it was enough to create a perfect storm, one that took the political world by storm, thrusting Trump into the presidency. Yet looking at the polling now, his numbers are better then they were in 2016 by 3 points, and they could go up as the debates come along.
There is one other thing that seems to terrify the left more than anything, that is, the undeclared Trump voters. The left has gone into such a meltdown over this; we have them now accusing secret Trump supporters purposefully skewing the polls to favor Biden, to make the Democrats think it is not needed to go out and vote.
This is creating a need for the liberal press to strike out on a two-front campaign, they are first trying to skew the polling to keep Trump voters from going out to vote, they are also stirring up fear with the Democrat base to drive them to vote out of fear against Trump, but none of this will work.
At this point, we see Trump not only winning the popular vote but the electoral vote in a more significant disparity then what was seen in 2016.
We look forward to seeing the usual reaction by the Democrats the night of the election; you can count on this the same way you can count on the sun to rise in the morning.
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