People that are in desperate need of money are going to get paid; businesses that are feeling the pain of this shut down are going to find relief finally, but when this is all over, what then? Will the two trillion stimulus be enough, will more be needed?
We are facing what has never been encountered in the history of this nation, a partial shutdown of our whole economy. Whole sectors have been shuttered, tens of thousands in the supply chain are now facing layoffs as the ripple effect moves on down, not only is this affecting us here in the US, it is doing so on a global scale. Yet we sit with questions, what will things look like when this is finished? If we learn nothing, two trillion is just the begging of what this will cost us.
As things stand now we are looking at a worldwide depression, our economy, actually more the world’s economy, which is so interdependent on other nations and what they offer on a global scale, we have over the last 30 years reaped the rewards of what an economy tied together on a worldwide scale can bring us, now we also see the downside of this when one part collapses the rest quickly follows suit. Does this mean we are doomed to then wallow in a depression until we go through a painful recovery?
There are signs that we could recover quickly, but much of this depends on how Trump and other world leaders react to this crisis. We are going to see nations fall into a deep depression, the kind of one not seen since the great depression many of us have heard of from our parents, grandparents, or with the youth, their great-grandparents, but some nations will recover and walk away in better shape than when this started. If we do this wisely, two trillion will be spent wisely, if not, then we will be faced with doing this again as we bury our nation in greater and higher national debt.
The wisdom that will be needed to figure out the timing of when to halt this isolation and shut down will be the deciding factor of if we repeat this process thus sliding our nations and others towards ruin or if we can pull out with the right timing we could see our country on the path to not only recovery but having learned from the lessons of this outbreak to be in a much better position then when this first started.
One of the indicators of the national mood is the stock market; one can watch this to see what type of pressure the investors are under, where their attitude is. The DOW underwent a tumble, not that this is surprising, what we are facing is unprecedented, having reached shy of 30,000 points to take a steep fall from that high point to going back to what the market was pointwise when Trump took office, in the upper 19,000 point range. Since then, we have seen the market start to climb back up, it is already at 21,000 and hopefully climbing, but much of this is due to the decisive handling of this crisis by Trump and his administration. The two trillion is very much what this nation needs, but this will never be enough, we are going to have to learn from this or be doomed to repeat the same mistakes.
Despite what the liberal pundits and politicians are saying, he did move in record time, acted decisively after the full knowledge of what we were facing was revealed. The problem at first was the mixed signals coming out of China, the outright covering up of the truth; thus, one did not have a clue of what we were facing. Once the facts started to come out, this government started to work, but the rate of expansion of cases both here and around the world was of a startling speed.
The question will be when to stop this isolation, when do we say it has been contained enough, get back to work, or by so doing, will we bring about a massive resurgence of the virus? This will be what will decide if we ride this out or if we fall under the weight of what is attacking us. There is also the point that this economy can only last so long with the influx of money the government is pumping out, with a GDP of $21 Trillion, we can only borrow so much until everything crashes.
What the government did was borrow a month of our GDP to keep this government operating, but there soon will be an accounting, when we what we are borrowing outweigh the benefit? Two trillion may seem like a lot, but if we have to dip into the bank again due to this not being handled correctly, we could quickly find ourselves in trouble.
If we are going to walk out of this in relatively good shape, it will only happen if we learn from our mistakes and make sure it never happens again. I would say that there are priorities that need to be looked at, and lessons of the danger of complete relying on globalization put this nation at considerable risk, there is something to be said for globalization, but small scale self-reliance with the ability to rapidly scale up is vital to national security.
Diversification is also something we have to implement, to put all our eggs in one basket, as we have done with China is both dangerous in times of need and outright inept on the part of our politicians not to foresee the problems this could bring about.
We can come out of this, but one has to hope, when it is done, we don’t quickly forget what we have learned and rapidly fall back to things, as usual, that is until the next Coronavirus or something much, much worse strikes again.